Looking at the international news headlines nowadays is bound to impress readers with the near-simultaneous transition of power taking place around the world. From the race to become the next Republican presidential candidate in the United States to the civil war in Libya, the battle for political authority is heating up worldwide.
Korea: Choosing the lesser of two evils?
In Korea, President Lee Myung-bak begins his fourth and final year in office. With the 2012 Presidential Election that is to be held on December 19, President Lee is trying to accomplish his pledges he made back in 2007 in the 17th Presidential Election and avoid becoming a lame duck. However, outside President Lee’s office at the Cheong Wa Dae, the situation doesn’t look bright for both President Lee and the ruling party, Saenuri-dang (which translates into New Frontier Party).
A survey by one newspaper indicates that President Lee has done a good job in managing the domestic economy during the global economic crisis, securing the deal to build four nuclear reactors in Abu Dhabi and bolstering the Korea-U.S. alliance, while income equality communication between the public and the National Assembly and poor handling of inter-Korean relations were the three weakest areas.
However, before the upcoming Presidential Election, the 2012 Legislative Election will be held on April 11. Saenuri-dang and the opposing Democratic United Party have already started campaigns for the upcoming election. This is a unique situation as both parties have new leaders: Saenuri-dang is led by Park Geun-hye, daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, while Han Myeong-sook, former Prime Minister during President Roh Moo-hyun’s term in office, leads the Democratic United Party. It’s a rare coincidence that both leaders are female, but some say it is a sign that Korean politics is ready to accept female leaders and a “softer charisma” compared to that felt from male leadership. While both parties are campaigning to acquire more seats in the Assembly, public poles show that the Democratic United Party is in the lead, with Saenuri-dang in second place.
Political analysts say that part of the blame for the slump of the conservative party lies with President Lee. During his term, some policies have had negative effects on the people – the KORUS FTA, to take an example. While the FTA is considered by the conservatives as one of the major accomplishments of President Lee and Saenuri-dang, there has been considerable opposition from the democrats, and the public is still divided on the issue. Though more talks and negotiations between both sides should have taken place, the government announced that the FTA would go into effect on March 15. The Democratic Union Party immediately released statements and demanded the government to renegotiate, while Saenuri-dang welcomed the announcement. It isn’t clear which party will gain an advantage from the announcement, but many say that it will prove a disadvantage for Saenuri-dang.
The corruption concerning President Lee’s relatives is another factor in Saenuri-dang’s slump. In many statements, President Lee had said that he was proud of the corruption-free government and that any cases of corruption wouldn’t go unpunished. However, with the end of his term fast approaching, cases of corruption slowly emerged and he had no choice but to apologize to the public. The fact that President Lee emphasized a clean government despite the actual situation made many supporters lose their loyalty, and the opposition party is vowing to take down the conservative government.
Other major drawbacks include the import of US beef that has raised concerns of mad-cow disease, the 4 Rivers Project, the censoring of social networking services and other public media and more recently the increase of college tuition fees. Saenuri-dang will have to resolve these issues if they want to acquire the majority of seats in congress.
Meanwhile, not everything about the Democratic United Party is looking good either. The union of several democratic parties hasn’t been completely successful, with the Unified Progressive Party going its separate way. Also, the increased welfare pledges from the democrats raise concerns about the national budget, and some are branding the pledges as populistic. Neither is the party free from corruption, with some of its members sentenced to prison terms for various accounts of wrongful deeds.
While both parties have their flaws, the Democratic United Party has relatively fewer setbacks than Saenuri-dang, as confirmed by the pole (though there is only a small gap between them). The outcome of the Legislative Election will definitely affect the Presidential Election. Chairman Park Geun-hye has expressed her intent to run for office while Chairman Han Myeong-sook is also in the running. Depending on the outcome, each party will have to work harder to achieve the ultimate goal of presidency and a regime that is in their direction. However, both parties should keep in mind that regardless of the outcome, voters will continue to monitor their progress and judge them on upcoming elections.
USA: Who will face Obama?
In the United States, the 2012 Presidential Elections will take place on November 6. The excitement for the election will continue, as procedures for selecting presidential nominees including caucuses and primaries will be held throughout the year. The Iowa caucus, which took place on January 3 this year, was noteworthy since it served as an early indicator of which presidential candidates might win the nomination of their political party.
President Obama, who declared his plans to stand for reelection last year, won the Iowa caucus with no significant difficulty, receiving 98% of the votes. In contrast to the Democratic Party, with its one solid candidate, there is intense competition within the Republican Party. Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania Senator who holds a classic conservative position on social issues such as same sex marriage and birth control, won the Iowa caucus. Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts and a moderate conservative, lost to Santorum by a narrow margin. One notable candidate was Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Although he was recently accused of seeking an “open marriage,” Gingrich has appealed to his voters as an extreme conservative. The result will come out after the “Super Tuesday” of March 6, when many of the states, including Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio and Virginia, hold their primaries.
With four years of the recession and a stalled recovery, the economy is where both candidates’ and voters’ attention is focused on. The Republicans as a whole believe that less government intervention is better for the markets and the economy. Romney pledges to lower taxes on investment gains and repeal President Obama’s programs, such as the Wall Street reform act that puts it under heavy regulation, and healthcare legislation. Gingrich, who has been emphasizing his pro-growth strategy, plans to eliminate the capital gains tax and reduce corporate income tax rates.
Throughout history, the incumbent president and party took the blame when the economy was in recession. Last year, Standard & Poor’s announced that it has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time, saying that “political brinkmanship” made the US government’s ability to manage its finances “less stable, less effective and less predictable.” In spite of the unprecedented budget deficit, an unemployment rate of 9% and a growing concern for the national debt, President Obama surprisingly escaped blame. In a recent Wall Street Journal poll, 60% of the people answered that the current economic conditions were a situation that Obama inherited and not responsible for. Still, attitudes can change. The coming election will be about the economy and whoever promises a stable one will most likely sway the voters’ hands.
Europe: Awaiting new leadership to cool the European summer
Spring seems to be the wrong word for what is currently happening in Europe. Unlike their Middle Eastern neighbors who recently experienced the Arab Spring, Europe is not experiencing an awakening but rather the fury of a sweltering summer: the fiery hell of the European debt crisis as it reaches its critical point, smothering austerity laws imposed on near-default nations pressured by the “troika” (the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank), outraged cries at the government for cuts in pension and employment, the widening gap of the classes, and censorship. It is so hot that a single ignition of a spark, whether it is the worsening of the debt or organized protests, could be enough to instigate a series of uncontrollable and uncontainable wildfires throughout Europe. Amidst the undying heat, the public’s attention is now centered on the approaching 2012 elections.
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy announced his candidacy for reelection on February 4, a move that was met with titters by those who believed him to be responsible for the plummeting French markets and the startling 9.9% unemployment rate increase. In January, France suffered a heavy blow as its top-notch credit rating of AAA was downgraded to AA+. Instead of attempting to stimulate the economy by investing in the safety nets of the people, such as education and employment, Sarkozy chose to enact austerity measures by cutting these funds, raising taxes and changing the retirement age from 60 to 62.
A recent polling of the presidential election reflected the public’s discontent: Sarkozy trailed behind with 43% support while his primary opponent and Socialist nominee François Hollande took the lead with 57%. Sarkozy’s recent outburst of personal, scathing insults at Hollande by calling him a “liar,” an “idealist,” and “dangerous” and his suggestion that Sarkozy himself had saved France from an economic catastrophe in fact worsened his campaign for a “Strong France.” Analysts find it unlikely that Sarkozy will be able to make a comeback during the first round of voting on April 22.
In Russia, Putin too had formally announced his desire to run for presidency back in September 2011 and accepted the nomination from the United Russia party. United Russia, a once popular party that has held power for a long time, is now facing opposition from the people for their tyranny and Russia’s worsening living conditions.
The Russian State Duma elections in December 2011 served as fuel for the fire when allegations of election fraud of majority support for Putin were presented by Just Russia, a quasi-opposition party. Apparently, about 6,000 “dead souls” had voted in Vladimir, a Central Russian city. A series of protests were sparked in the streets of Moscow as 5,000 protesters gathered on December 10 and more than 120,000 on December 24 in a cry for transparent and honest elections.
The voting fraud was declared to be invalid but people still remain unconvinced. Putin is now attempting to win back and revive the “working aristocracy” primarily by suggesting policies that would close the gap between the classes such as luxury tax, rise in pensions and compensations for the increase in demographics. His primary opponents include the billionaire businessman Mikhail D. Prokhorov, who is targeting the middle class, and the head of the Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, with his cheery slogan of “Zhirinovsky, or it’ll be worse.”
The 2012 elections hold a significant meaning to the people in Europe, as life becomes more of a struggle with each and every passing day. The people are hoping for changes in leadership that would guide them out of the economic crisis and to a better standard of living.
Middle East: The Arabic spring of revolution
Tensions have constantly run deep throughout the Middle East and have been a mainstay of global news. In the wake of the tragedy of September 11, 2001 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that followed, as well as political contentions with Iran over its nuclear program, the Middle East has been left in a perpetual state of turmoil. In more recent years, a wave of revolutions and protests has gripped the Arab world in a movement dubbed the “Arab Spring.” This movement, which began on December 18, 2010, has brought about revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, civil war in Libya and waves of protests in a host of other Middle Eastern nations.
Following the self-immolation of Mohammed Buoazizi, a series of increasingly violent street demonstration swept through the streets of Tunisia in December 2010 in response to unemployment, food inflation, corruption and a lack of freedom. Ultimately, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali stepped down from power and fled to Saudi Arabia, ending his presidency of 23 years. A caretaker coalition government was created following Ben Ali’s departure that included members of the Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD), Ben Ali’s party, and figures from other ministries. However the five non-RCD members resigned shortly after being appointed and protests continued. Despite reshuffling the cabinet and removing all RCD members, Prime Minister Ghannouchi, who was himself a RCD member, was forced to resign. The citizens of Tunisia voted in the first post-revolution government on October 23, 2011.
Shortly after the beginning of the Tunisian revolution, protests erupted in Egypt on January 25. While the Egyptian government shut down the nation’s internet access in an attempt to stop citizens organizing rallies through social media, President Mubarak eventually dismissed his government and appointed a new cabinet as tens of thousands of people took to the streets in all major cities. On February 10, Mubarak ceded all power to his vice president, but later stated that he would remain president until the end of his term. Yet, as protests continued, Vice President Suleiman announced that Mubarak had resigned and transferred power to the Egyptian armed forces. The military immediately dissolved the parliament and suspended the constitution, and appointed a civilian, Essam Sharaf, as Prime Minister on March 4. While the move was popular among the citizens, protests continued when Sharaf failed to quickly implement the changes he had promised. Currently, Kamal Ganzouri has taken over as prime minister.
Anti-government protests began on February 15, 2011, in Libya with protestors seizing control of Benghazi, the country’s second largest city. After government troops failed to quell the uprising, and the start of protests in Tripoli, Libya’s dictator, Muammar Gaddafi issued a television broadcast warning citizens that their actions could plunge the country into civil war. Amidst the efforts of rebel forces to seize control of the capital, an opposition government was set up in Benghazi, while the rising death toll drew international criticism and calls for the dismantling of the government. On March 17, the UN Security Council called for all necessary measures to protect civilians and UN forces began a bombing campaign against pro-Gaddafi forces. Civil war continued until late August when rebel forces managed to capture Tripoli marking an end to Gaddafi’s 42-year autocracy. Gaddafi and many of his top officials fled to Sirte but the city was later seized by anti-Gaddafi fighters who killed Gadaffi in the process.
There have also been civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen; major protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco and Oman; and minor protests in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. The reaction of the international community has generally been supportive of the changes and condemning of the governments’ violent reactions to these protests. Saudi Arabia was the first nation in the Middle East to publicly criticize the Syrian government, withdrawing its ambassador from Damascus. The Arabic uprising has had consequences outside the Middle East, including increased oil prices. While it is too early to determine where exactly these events will lead to, it could mean that the Middle East will be more open to diplomacy after this “new wave of democracy.”
China: A new leader for the decade
2012 signifies the most crucial year of this decade for China. Although most of the headlines around the world are concerned with the upcoming elections in the United States, an equally important event is coming up for China: the political transition for the position of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China. Current president Hu Jintao will most likely hand down his leadership to Xi Jinping in March. This will not only present a possibility for the occurrences of disorder while the government is in a transitional state, but also bring imminent changes in the areas concerning the military, economic policies and international relations.
Unlike other countries around the world, the process of change in power will be carried out mostly behind closed curtains. There will be no TV debates, conventions or soliciting of votes. The entire process will be relatively quiet in order to make the transition as smooth and orderly as possible.
Until now, there have been four generations of Communist Chinese leaders: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Mr Xi will be the fifth to carry out the leading role in Chinese politics, but his method of approach is still unknown and is clouded in a veil of mystery. However, compared to his highly cautious predecessor, it is predicted that he will take on a much more active and dynamic role. Hu’s overemphasis on “stability” has been one of the factors that led China into a political and structural stasis, so it will be Xi’s task to pull China out of inactivity.
There will be many critical eyes on the changes brought to the political structure of China. The composition of the new Politburo Standing Committee will determine which direction China will take in the upcoming decade. Also, there may be changes in the People’s Liberation Army. Furthermore with China’s civilian-political leadership, the members of the Party’s Central Military Commission (CMC) will most likely change drastically. It is expected that the new members of CMC will be more hard-line than the current members, as they are becoming the more dominant voices.
Due to the massive changes in the political structure, for the first year the Chinese Communist Party will want to stay quiet and avoid unnecessary risks until the transition of power is effectively complete. Therefore, the government is expected to actively crack down on protests and unrest , while the censorship of the internet and restrictions regarding media contents will be further tightened. With the incorporation of these methods, China will most likely attempt to shape the narrative of Chinese perception from both at home and abroad.
The change in power will take place during a critical time for China. Due to the financial crisis in Europe and the consequential disorderly break-up of the Euro, there will be a lot of strain on the health and stewardship of China’s economy. China will have the durability of its export-dependent economy and autocratic polity tested to their limits. If the situation in Europe takes a turn for the worse, Europe’s status as China’s biggest export market ensures critical damage to China if the mishaps of Europe’s 2008 banking crisis break out again. This could bring about the closure of a plethora of factories and soaring unemployment numbers.
To alleviate the crisis, China will have to find a method to damp the soaring property prices and the above-expectation inflation. One option China can resort to is to loosen its monetary and fiscal policies. For example during last December, a 50 basis-point cut was made in the reserve ratios required by the Chinese banks, which loosened about $63 billion into the Chinese economy. However, unlike the inflation issue, the problem of property prices will be more difficult to handle as the economy’s firm grasp on market values will prevent the prices from fluctuating or falling.
Overall, there are many problems ahead for Xi Jinping. The relations he must regulate at home and abroad are complicated and hold many possible outcomes. The stance he takes will significantly affect the future of China for the next decade.