On January 5, 2024, Alaska Airlines’ Flight 1282 — operated by a Boeing 737 MAX 9 flying from Portland, Oregon to Ontario, California — experienced a sudden and uncontrolled decompression of the aircraft cabin just minutes after takeoff. A loud noise accompanied the oxygen masks that dropped from the ceiling, prompting immediate action from the passengers. The pilots quickly initiated an emergency descent and returned to Portland, ensuring a safe landing despite the incident. 

While a few passengers sustained injuries, there were fortunately no fatalities. Notably, the 737 MAX 8 was grounded for nearly two years following the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash in March 2019, which tragically claimed 157 lives. This grounding came less than five months after another 737 MAX 8, on Indonesia’s Lion Air Flight 610, crashed into the Java Sea shortly after takeoff in October 2018.

The problem of the recent incident seems to have originated from the improper installation of a door plug on the side of the aircraft’s main body. Regulatory bodies like the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the US have established standards on passenger aircraft, including specifications on the number of emergency exits required based on the number of passenger seats on an airliner. While the fuselage of each plane incorporates the maximum possible number of door openings during its manufacture, the specifics of the order each airline places create differences in the final number of exits. When there is an opening where an exit isn’t necessary, an immobile door plug is fitted in the fuselage to seal it.

The National Transportation Safety Board’s preliminary report suggests the door plug installed in the aircraft in question was removed at a Boeing factory in an intermediate stage of its manufacture to facilitate the repair of nearby damaged rivets. Following the repairs, the door plug was reinstalled but with at least three of the four retaining bolts that helped secure it in the vertical direction missing. Now loose, the door plug could move in response to changes in external conditions, like the changing pressure differential between an aircraft’s interior and exterior as it ascends, which ultimately can lead to its blowing out. Indeed, the report found that the damage to the fuselage was consistent with the door plug moving upwards, out, and to the back of the aircraft as it detached.

The incident is unrelated to Boeing’s earlier woes with the 737 MAX 8, which were instead caused by MCAS, an automatic flight-stabilizing feature built into the aircraft in order to better mimic the flight characteristics of the previous version of the plane. This was done to minimize the amount of training pilots would have to receive specific to the model in question.

The 737 MAX 9 jets, which were grounded by airlines and regulators pending further investigation into the nature of the malfunction, were allowed to resume operations in the US and across the world later in January. However, the planned expansion in the production of the aircraft was delayed due to the FAA’s concerns regarding the safety culture at Boeing.

This latest blow to Boeing comes only a few years into the most significant shock the global aviation market has experienced in a generation with the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a drastic reduction in air travel demand in 2020. The downturn was further exacerbated by the economic crisis accompanying the pandemic, travel restrictions, and public skepticism about traveling. The revenue passenger-kilometers, a key metric in the industry that reflects the number of paying passengers and the total distance they travel, declined by over 60% year-over-year. This decline had a profound impact on an industry known for its thin margins, ultimately leading to inevitable order cancellations for aircraft manufacturers.

This coincided with the broader shift in the industry in favor of Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, further precipitated by the 2018 and 2019 crashes. The events surrounding this most recent incident did not help with their struggling image, especially of the 737 MAX program. Regardless, there seems to be cause for optimism in the industry. The International Air Transport Association, an association of hundreds of airlines across the world, predicts that the market could return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024. This happens as consumers around the world become increasingly more comfortable with travel and governments lifting travel restrictions since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic era. The greater market demand for flights will likely be accompanied by a renewed interest in purchasing aircraft. 

This seems to be happening already; American Airlines is ordering hundreds of new jets to join its fleet, including dozens of Boeing aircraft. Regardless, Boeing is rightly facing a reckoning by airlines, regulators, and consumers alike, and its performance over the next decade and beyond will determine the future of the aviation industry, especially with newcomers like the Chinese Comac looking to break the current duopoly.