On September 27, an exchange of military attacks erupted between former Soviet republics Armenia and Azerbaijan, resulting in at least 23 fatalities and an intensified state of emergency in both countries. The clashes occurred over the landlocked region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a highly-contested territory that has spurred a decades-long dispute between the two nations. As the situation unfolded quickly in a span of a few weeks, international spectators feared the potential of the ongoing armed conflicts to escalate into a full-fledged war.

Nagorno-Karabakh has historically been inhabited by a mix of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijani Turks. However, when the Soviet Union gained substantial control over the region, they imposed divisions over the region and designated it to be under the complete control of Azerbaijan. This was the precedent of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (or administrative zone) in 1923, which remained unchallenged until the collapse of the USSR in the late 1980s. Ethnic Armenians residing in Karabakh sent a petition to Moscow asking to transfer control of the region to Armenia, and suggested a delimitation of its borders to include most Armenian communities under their sovereignty. The petition did not sit well with the ethnic Azerbaijani Turks in Karabakh, and a series of conflicts, demonstrations, and resistance ensued over the next years, with accusations of ethnic cleansing coming from both ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijani Turks in the region. 

As soon as both Armenia and Azerbaijan attained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the dispute over Karabakh escalated into a destructive scale of fighting, which displaced more ethnic Azerbaijani Turks than Armenians from the region. At the same time, Azerbaijan abolished the separate status of the region and officially declared Karabakh under their sovereignty. By 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a ceasefire after negotiations brokered by Russia.  At present, Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is mostly controlled by Armenian forces and inhabited by ethnic Armenians. 

Nevertheless, the region is still an active conflict zone, with intermittent skirmishes flaring up despite the official ceasefire. Azerbaijan claims their rightful sovereignty on Karabakh as declared by international standards, while Armenia aims to have the region recognized as an independent state. However, the ceasefire merely places both countries on deadlock. Although it has helped maintain peace between the two countries, the ceasefire only prevents, but not completely ends, the dispute. The question of sovereignty remains unanswered, and the longer it is left as it is, both ends get slowly exhausted by the status quo. This could explain the number of short-lived clashes that have occurred over the last few years.

The recent encounter, however, is of particularly significant magnitude as compared to previous confrontations, prompting both countries to declare martial law and partial military mobilization. The growing tensions elicited polarized responses on a global scale. Many countries including the US, UK, Canada, Russia, and France have called for an immediate ceasefire between the two countries, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed a similar message. Turkey, on the other hand, has vocally supported Azerbaijan. In his visit to Azerbaijan, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu mentioned, “To put these two countries on equal footing means awarding the occupier. The world must be on the side of those who are right, namely on the side of Azerbaijan.”

Azerbaijan has initially not responded positively as of date to such propositions of a ceasefire, with current president Ilham Aliyev stating that a ceasefire could only be effective upon Armenia’s “withdrawal from every span of Azerbaijani territory”. But just recently, Armenia and Azerbaijan have both already agreed to a ceasefire on October 10. After a meeting of foreign ministers from both countries in Moscow, the ceasefire was agreed upon to allow both countries to exchange prisoners and recover affected bodies. 

However, within an hour of the recent ceasefire’s implementation, both sides have begun accusing each other of violating it once again. It seems that a ceasefire is not enough to bring back the relations of both parties to stability. There is a significant conflict of interest between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabakh, just like in any other territorial dispute. With both sides fiercely defending their stances, a total resolution on both ends appears unlikely in the near future.