The handful of countries that managed to develop effective vaccines are now struggling with manufacturing at a large scale to fulfill national and global needs. In addition to economic and material constraints, political objectives are proving to be a key consideration, and as a result,  the current global production of vaccines is much lower than its potential. Consequently, a longer time will be needed to bring an end to the coronavirus crisis, and there is an increased chance of vaccines losing their potency due to emergence of new virus strains and decreasing public trust.

Over the past year, several initiatives and agreements were formed to ensure that vaccines would not be limited to just a few countries. One such scheme was COVAX, which enjoyed the support of the World Health Organization and the participation of 72 countries. It was aimed at guaranteeing that at least one-fifths of all countries’ populations would be provided vaccines on a priority basis. This arrangement could drastically reduce the infection rate and death toll by immunizing the groups facing the greatest risk, such as medical workers and elderly people. However, with the ongoing production issues and resulting shortages, countries with production facilities are growing increasingly more hesitant to export their vaccines, as their governments fear a loss of popularity if they do not prioritize national interests. Many countries have even placed outright bans on the export of their vaccines and protective equipment. This has created an atmosphere of uncertainty regarding their pledge to help poorer countries.

Vaccine manufacturers have opposed any government involvement in the production process, arguing that strict regulation will adversely affect innovation and future drug development by depriving the pharmaceutical corporations of monetary incentives. However, some governments have raised concerns that manufacturers are not honoring their agreements and instead are prioritizing the states that are willing to pay more. Such allegations have led to a spat among the EU and the United Kingdom, with the EU alleging that the U.K. government was sabotaging the EU's vaccine acquisition.

Amid the production issues, there is also the case of countries that do not have an effective vaccine but do have large-scale manufacturing facilities, such as South Africa. Many of these countries have asked for assistance from the major vaccine producing countries to produce vaccines locally. South Africa and India had put forth a proposal at the World Trade Organization to waive the vaccine manufacturers’ intellectual property rights given the severity and urgency of the pandemic, but the idea was swiftly rejected by richer nations, most prominently by the United States and the United Kingdom. These nations argued that allowing developing nations to manufacture the vaccines themselves would deprive manufacturers of their rightful share and potentially prevent them from creating drugs to tackle the newly emerging virus strains.

However, this argument ignores the fact that there presently is no money being made selling vaccines in the developing countries, and therefore, there is no danger of a loss of profit to the companies (as their sales are directed towards developed countries). Meanwhile, deprived of vaccines, millions of people in the poorer nations remain subjected to suffering and death. By prohibiting local production, richer nations are effectively prolonging the time needed to eliminate the pandemic, which actually increases the likelihood of the emergence of new strains. Additionally, studies have found that these production and distribution delays result in the general public being less trustful of vaccines. Such an atmosphere of doubt and distrust among the public could prove to be a major hurdle to the immunization process. 

These production problems and insistence on profits has also led to significant geopolitical shifts, as old alliances weaken and new alliances form over the provision of vaccines and other forms of medical and economic support during the pandemic. Russia and China have stepped in to fill the void by providing their vaccines in a swift and inexpensive manner to many developing countries and gained the trust and respect of those countries. In turn, those developing nations are likely to take a very favorable approach towards China and Russia in the coming years. The pandemic will prove to be a key event in the rise of a multipolar world order, where Western countries exert a significantly decreased amount of influence on the rest of the world.