Until February, COVID-19 in India seemed to be on the decline, with the initiation of the vaccination program in mid-January. However, the deadly second wave “hit like a storm” and “has shaken the nation,” as phrased by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. News outlets reported shocking clips of burning funeral pyres, grieving families, fully occupied hospitals, and people on the streets suffocating due to a shortage in oxygen tanks. Infections reached a record high on May 6, with more than 410,000 cases, and are predicted to increase further. India’s current crisis and the cause of its devastating second wave represents some common factors that manifest in the world’s least developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries.

In general, statistics suggest there has been a low incidence of COVID in developing countries. For instance, countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, and Bhutan have successfully kept rates of infection low, while many developed countries account for the most number of cases and deaths, including the United States, France, and Spain. However, focusing on just the numbers can obscure the multi-faceted nature of the health crisis. Aside from having a younger demographic or the underestimation of figures due to lack of testing, significant barriers exist that pose greater threats and make post-pandemic recovery challenging in developing countries. 

The first and most conspicuous impediment in many developing countries is the lack of sufficient healthcare infrastructure and low health system capacity. India’s uncontrollable surge in infections revealed its underfunded and inadequate medical infrastructure, which has been overlooked by previous governments. Understaffing, shortage of medical equipment, such as oxygen concentrators, and limited accessibility to health facilities all hinder an effective response to outbreaks. A study by the United Nations (UN) predicted that the 20 most vulnerable countries including Mali, Nepal, Uganda, and Bangladesh will run out of ICU beds when merely 0.23 percent of their populations are infected.

Another factor is political instability. Many developing countries are in conflict and cannot afford to set pandemic response as their primary focus. Yemen’s civil war has not abated since 2011, and more than half of its health facilities are either closed or working at a limited capacity, according to the Human Rights Watch. In the face of armed conflict and violence, overcrowding in detention centers and prisons increases health risks. Civilians can hardly pay attention to sanitation and basic preventive measures, which exacerbates the situation even further. Afghanistan and Somalia are also struggling from the consequences of armed conflict. Other than political tensions due to war, political causes include ineffective and untimely policy response, as well as bureaucratic incompetence, which was demonstrated clearly by Brazil’s President Bolsonaro and by Modi’s premature victory over the virus.

From an economic perspective, developing countries are reliant on exports of raw materials and certain sectors such as tourism. In the face of lockdowns, decreased foreign direct investment, and decreased prices of primary commodities, the world’s most vulnerable economies are prone to an economic shock. An assessment by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that almost half of the LDCs are at high risk of debt distress. Angola, which is an oil-exporting country, has experienced a heightened debt-to-GDP ratio while Zambia has defaulted on its debts since the start of the pandemic. Moreover, due to severe economic consequences, some governments, including Indonesia, have decided to reopen or are considering reopening the economy. Hasty decision-making by nations and avoidance of adequately stringent policies may interfere with controlling the spread of the virus.

Lastly, social indicators suggest the dire consequences of the pandemic on developing countries. For instance, education is greatly affected in developing countries that lack the necessary technology for remote learning. According to the UN’s figures, online platforms were used in 95 percent of high-income countries and 64 percent by low-income countries. School closures in LDCs indicate a halt in education, much worse learning outcomes, and lower graduation rates, which suggest a significant loss to the country’s labor market in the long run. Furthermore, poverty and income inequality, which have been consistently decreasing for the past 25 years, are estimated to worsen the most in LDCs due to a lack of a social safety net and crucial policies to support the unemployed and the destitute.

Though the pandemic has had serious repercussions on every country around the world, the extent of this influence varies. Of course, hasty generalizations should not be made. Even in Korea, which was praised for its timely response to controlling the outbreak last year, the healthcare system was revealed to be unsustainable due to heavy reliance on the prolonged working hours of healthcare workers. Moreover, with the pandemic continuing for more than a year, the laxity in social distancing rules is starting to manifest globally. There is certainly no explicit trend describing the stark contrast between the impacts of the pandemic on developed and developing countries. However, it is also beyond doubt that social, economic, and political factors render the world’s developing countries especially vulnerable to this humanitarian catastrophe.