The International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the Japanese government have announced that the Tokyo Olympic games will start on July 23. However, with only a few weeks remaining, anti-Olympic sentiments are soaring; meanwhile, with the arrival of tens of thousands of athletes and journalists from more than 90 countries expected, the Japanese government and IOC are stating that the Olympic games will go ahead as planned. 

Japan is now experiencing a fourth wave of the pandemic, and although the numbers seem to indicate declining infection rates, there are still on average about 4,000 new COVID cases reported daily. Consequently, the government has prolonged a state of emergency implemented in several cities until mid-June, just a few weeks shy of the start of the games. The extended state of emergency, which was initially planned for just two weeks, means that businesses such as restaurants, bars, and department stores have to operate at a limited capacity and close as early as 8 p.m. The slow vaccine rollout is also another main problem at the moment, with only 2.4 percent of the county’s population fully vaccinated. Mass vaccination sites are now opening in major cities as the government is in a rush to vaccinate everyone over 65 before the start of the summer games. Japan, which has previously approved only the Pfizer vaccine, has now authorized the use of Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines in an attempt to speed up the vaccination process. 

The government’s handling of the recent surge of cases and the Olympic games has led to concerns and criticisms from the public. In a survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, 83 percent of participants opposed the event. The nationwide survey showed that 43 percent of the participants voted for cancellation and another 40 percent voted for postponement. Compared to a similar survey done back in April, the number of people who have opted for these two options has increased, while the percentage of people who still think the Olympics should be held has halved. The Tokyo Medical Practitioners Association, a top medical organization in Japan consisting of thousands of doctors, has urged against the summer games in fear of a massive surge in COVID cases. The CEO of the Japanese e-commerce company, Rakuten, has also called the organization of the games a suicide mission.

With the calls for cancellation of the games soaring by the day, the Japanese government and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga are under pressure to take swift action. However, sports law experts explain that it is not so easy for the government to pull the plug even if it wanted to. In the contract between the IOC and the host city, there is only one entity that has the option to cancel the games — and it is not the host city. The Olympic games are, in legal terms, the “exclusive property” of the IOC and it is them who have the legal means to terminate the contract. If Japan breaches the contract and terminates the agreement, it would risk losing billions it invested since accepting the games seven and a half years ago. So the only possible realistic option for the games to be cancelled is reaching a bilateral agreement between the two parties at hand. If that happens, all parties involved such as the IOC, the Japanese Olympic organizing committee, and television broadcasters will have the chance to get insurance compensation in what could be the biggest insurance payout in sports history. Even then, while insurance might cover some of the concrete costs, it wouldn’t cover any of the expenses and investments made by the public in anticipation of the games. However, this scenario seems to be less likely as the IOC remains adamant that canceling the games is off the table. With the support of influential figures such as WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, the IOC is still reassuring Tokyo and the rest of the world that the Olympics will be safe, noting that most of the guests will have been vaccinated by the start of the games.

Japan has already announced that it will not be accepting foreign fans into the country, but considering how the local state of emergency is going, it is also unclear whether locals will be attending the games. There will be strict social distancing measures in-place for athletes and other personnel involved. While these factors might not affect TV broadcasting (which accounts for more than 75 percent of the IOC’s income) there are still questions raised regarding the atmosphere that the event will create, as the games are usually hosted in a festive environment. With all that is happening, it might turn out to be an Olympic just on paper.