When it comes to political conflicts between two nations, very rarely are the consequences left on the battlefield. Conflicts are also manifested in one’s pursuit of impeding the other’s progress and development. The US and the Russian Federation (in the form of the Soviet Union (USSR) prior to 1991) have been rivals for decades in a constant race to become the world’s leading nation. Their influence in Afghanistan is perhaps most noticeable now as the country is left in the hands of the Taliban after decades of war.

This month, the Taliban announced a new order for Afghanistan — a highly conservative policy implemented by a predominantly Pashtun government. After more than 40 years of war against progressivism, the Taliban seem to have achieved the goal of their predecessors. But who were their predecessors, and how did they fight off the USSR and the US? An understanding of the past is necessary to predict what may come next. The answers date back to the Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989 during the Cold War. 

The USSR was the first to recognize the Republic of Afghanistan, yet to form a defined structure, as an independent state and provided significant military and economic assistance for its development. However, the political and cultural diversity of the population as a buffer zone between Central Asia and the Middle East caused complications. Clashes between the liberals and the conservatives, pro-Soviets and anti-Soviets, and those supporting a monarchy led to numerous coups and revolutions. Appointed leaders, looking to establish new laws and reforms, fought off the rebellions of the conservative Pashtun population. During this war, leaders were frequently assassinated or publicly executed, hindering the progression of the country and never giving Afghan civilians a time at peace.  

The Afghan government eventually requested the Soviet Union to intervene in Afghan conflicts. Such appeals were rejected almost 20 times, as the USSR saw long-term dangers in the intervention; instead, they offered Soviet political advisers. However, as always, there was someone interested in making sure they would make their biggest mistake. “We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would,”  said Zbigniew Brzezinski, the acting National Security Advisor of the US in 1979, in a later interview. 

On July 3, 1979, according to Brzezinski, President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. The US provided training and funding for anti-communist fighters, called the Mujahideen, in Pakistan where Afghan refugees were hiding. The high concentration of capable Afghan fighters led to the opening of Islamist schools and became a hub for recruitment by the Taliban.

On December 24, 1979, the USSR military eventually entered Afghanistan to support the Afghan government against insurgents when it suspected Hafizullah Amin, the General Secretary of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan, to have relations with Pakistan, China, and — most importantly — the US. The USSR, dissatisfied with Amin’s ruling and mistrusting him, assassinated Amin, signaling the beginning of the Soviet-Afghan War. 

In their mission to contain communism, the US sought to collaborate with Pakistan and the Mujahideen; their alliance is a perfect example of the axiom, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Pakistan stationed Afghan refugees for further training as a means of promoting Pan-Islamism. The Mujahideens needed the Soviet Union to retreat in order to make Afghanistan an independent and Islamic state.

The US achieved its goal — the Soviet-Afghan war depleted the Soviet Union’s resources, demoralized them, and eventually became their demise. However, after the Soviet Union’s withdrawal and the following political vacuum, Afghanistan fell into a civil war that saw the creation of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Eventually, what started as a rivalry for political influence in the region, became a fruitful ground for emergence of a much bigger threat for both sides. There is even an opinion that the very efforts taken by the involved parties lit the flames of Islamist organizations. By 1996, the Taliban conquered almost three quarters of Afghanistan, enforcing a strict Islamic Law: Sharia. Later, as the US suspected the Afghan government for providing refuge to Osama Bin Laden after al Qaeda’s September 11 attacks, America had been at war in Afghanistan for 20 years.

The withdrawal of American troops this August led to the Taliban seizing complete power once again, but will they be able to maintain it? One war may have ended; however, Afghanistan is still the subject of interest of different organizations and nations. Various groups may see the newly established government with no international military support as an appealing target to conquer and enforce their own rule. As Afghanistan faces a looming humanitarian crisis, there are increasing concerns about violence and instability spilling over the borders into the neighboring countries. President Vladimir Putin of Russia already expressed concern about the suggestion made by the US to station Afghan refugees in Central Asia while their US visa applications are processed. President Putin highlighted the visa-less travel between Central Asian countries and Russia as a critical point of concern for such precautionary measures, stating that Russia will stay out of the Afghan conflict. Just like 40 years ago, such circumstances may be beneficial to some — why many are afraid that history might repeat itself.

Author's note: This article, being the author's first experience in publishing, was written based on the commonly expressed opinions and available coverage on the internet considering time limitations. Representing the younger generation that hasn't seen the beginning of the wars in Afghanistan and even the Cold War, this article aspires to be informative both to the young readers and the public media interested in the new generation's perception of the past events. Perhaps, when history is studied and frequently re-evaluated can we really learn from the past to avoid making similar mistakes in the future. As time goes on and more information becomes available, I hope to revisit the topic and make adjustments to the current analysis as necessary. 

Article edited on October 5, 2021, as more research was conducted and time and formatting constraints were lowered for the digital publication.