Initiated in February, the Russia-Ukraine war has gotten seven weeks into the war, raising questions about whether it would strengthen or weaken existing alliances and how it will affect other countries as well. There has been an opinion that the current war might act as a deterrent for conflicts around the world, specifically by uniting the West against the aggressive actions of Russia as well as disputes concerning China. 

Russia’s brutal violence in Ukraine has incurred condemnation towards itself as well as an unprecedented level of cooperation among the West. Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, claimed that NATO, as well as the European Union (EU), have been more united than ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. More than 600 companies have announced withdrawal from Russia, denouncing its initiation of a war. On March 1 at the UN Human Rights Council, more than 100 diplomats walked out when the Russian foreign minister started his speech, and on April 7, following the reported massacre in Bucha, the UN voted to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Moreover, the EU has announced plans to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, which currently corresponds to 45% of its gas imports, by two-thirds by the end of this year. The EU further announced on April 8 to adopt the fifth round of sanctions on Russia, which restricts Russia’s activities in coal exports, financial measures, transportation, and public bands. Bremmer professed to CNBC that the war unintendedly led to “uniting the West, destroying Russia’s economy, … almost guaranteed Ukraine’s future inclusion into western institutions and ultimate demise of Russia’s grand power aspirations.”

Contrary to the union of the West, the war has led to internal division within Russia. Russia’s decision to initiate war is not supported fully by the Russian citizens: according to a survey conducted by Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) after one month into the war, one-third of the Russians have answered that they do not advocate the government’s decision. It is reported that by March 21, more than 30,000 Russians have fled to Georgia, and such a brain drain of the young generation can be a significant loss to Russia in the long term. The central bank also has declared to ban the exchange of rubles among citizens until September 9, which economists speculate will eventually create black markets where the rubles are traded at values lower than their official rate. Such discord among citizens and the Kremlin could help restrain its radical decisions, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has to deal with heightening sanctions from other countries as well as securing public support. 

There have also been hopes that the Russia-Ukraine war may have the potential to deter China from engaging in future conflicts. Just two months before the initiation of the Russia-Ukraine war, Chinese president Xi Jinping had told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Xi is aware of the importance of their diplomatic relationship, as China is Ukraine’s major trading partner of mineral fuels. However, a week after Xi’s conversation with Zelensky, Xi also claimed that there is “no limit” to building an alliance with Russia. While China is viewed as one of the strong allies of Russia, China’s ambiguous attitude between Russia and Ukraine has deterred China from definitely taking a side and escalating the war to a bigger scale, which can be significant as China is ranked in the top five military powers. 

China initiated its dispute with Hong Kong in 2019 and has also received massive condemnation from other countries due to its aggressive oppression of civilians. It is unclear whether China has learned from the unified criticisms and sanctions against Russia, but if it has, it is likely to discourage further aggressive attitudes toward Hong Kong or Taiwan. But from China’s ambiguous attitude so far, it can be speculated that at least China is aware of the current trend of condemning Russia’s violent actions and that taking Russia’s side or initiating attacks on other countries risks losing diplomatic relations with other countries as well as a dominant position in international affairs. 

The current unprecedented level of union of the West imposing sanctions on Russia, while there is a division within Russia, may serve as an exemplary model of how a country initiating a war can be isolated internationally, thus having a positive effect on discouraging further initiation of wars between countries.